12345123456
0xf968b20c0a62d3dccd6a0a648c5205690c3584bd
- Realised P&L
- $-234.45
- Volume
- $131.1k
- Markets traded
- 194
- Open portfolio
- $505.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded194
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.845 | $235.64 | +$146.38 |
| Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.953 | $225.35 | +$154.85 |
| Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.057 | $24.99 | −$57.52 |
| Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.730 | $14.43 | +$4.15 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.112 | $5.58 | −$8.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.036Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$430.90at 0.158Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$337.20at 0.157Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$297.91at 0.681Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026?
- +$249.20at 0.110Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 14:42 | Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.52 | $10.28 |
| 09-23 14:41 | Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.635693128 | $10.73 |
| 09-23 13:31 | Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.6599999941 | $15.71 |
| 09-23 12:29 | Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.4899999987 | $15.43 |
| 09-22 20:46 | Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.4782239725 | $40.39 |
| 09-15 20:38 | Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.1699316246 | $40.51 |
| 09-14 16:15 | Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.2599999989 | $58.13 |
| 09-14 16:14 | Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.1978932492 | $30.11 |
| 09-14 15:45 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.999 | $156.09 |
| 09-13 20:03 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 09-13 18:02 | Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.097426157 | $50.00 |
| 09-13 18:02 | Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0325085904 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 18:02 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.32 | $50.00 |
| 09-10 19:26 | Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.9916822612 | $122.10 |
| 08-14 21:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.38 | $5.95 |