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0xf953b2ab4be140808e3271ef9d0e2fba0831be46
- Realised P&L
- $26.09
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $146.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.972 | 0.982 | $146.44 | +$1.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.58at 0.885 Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?
- +$6.51at 0.949MetaMask airdrop in 2024?
- +$0.45at 0.997Base airdrop in Q2 2025?
- +$0.44at 0.997Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$0.41at 0.997Base airdrop in Q1 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 13:43 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.972336129 | $145.00 |
| 12-19 13:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $145.18 |
| 09-25 02:09 | Astaria airdrop in Q3 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $145.03 |
| 05-25 07:33 | Base airdrop in Q2 2025? | BUY | 0.9969080869 | $144.58 |
| 03-04 03:59 | Base airdrop in Q1 2025? | BUY | 0.9971668206 | $144.17 |
| 01-07 05:20 | Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? | BUY | 0.8849999992 | $127.59 |
| 10-29 03:02 | MetaMask airdrop in 2024? | BUY | 0.9489999998 | $121.09 |
| 09-25 01:06 | Base airdrop by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $120.96 |