a1a1
0xf90b6a07e67fa5f3f3dbccab61782bcf395dcb6c
- Realised P&L
- $-12.7k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $747.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.840 | 0.525 | $575.61 | −$345.37 |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.049 | $171.60 | −$125.10 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.507Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$3.8kat 0.163Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor
- +$3.5kat 0.176Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$2.0kat 0.371Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$1.1kat 0.590Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 20:42 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0475 | $111.44 |
| 07-14 20:41 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.055 | $168.57 |
| 07-14 20:41 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0575 | $287.50 |
| 07-14 20:40 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.06 | $45.00 |
| 07-14 20:39 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.077055655 | $770.56 |
| 07-14 20:38 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0775 | $287.38 |
| 07-14 20:37 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0925 | $578.16 |
| 03-24 23:07 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.78 | $2.2k |
| 02-28 14:11 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.34 | $589.67 |
| 02-26 12:08 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.666 | $23.20 |
| 02-26 12:06 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.656823415 | $574.04 |
| 02-26 10:00 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.682 | $1.5k |
| 02-26 08:08 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.7123271914 | $159.28 |
| 02-26 08:05 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.731 | $234.87 |
| 02-24 07:16 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $912.50 |