treasuryorigin
0xf8dc0622bba309be2a1baf15632364057bab426a
- Realised P&L
- $80.16
- Volume
- $33.0k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $175.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.505 | $175.13 | +$19.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$505.52at 0.427Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 17?
- +$134.11at 0.532Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08?
- +$54.69at 0.500Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 12:24 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? | SELL | 0.5 | $12.57 |
| 09-21 11:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.45 | $167.37 |
| 09-18 07:24 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.58 | $13.98 |
| 09-18 06:28 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.54 | $260.46 |
| 09-16 09:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 17? | SELL | 0.44 | $27.61 |
| 09-16 08:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 17? | BUY | 0.41 | $385.40 |
| 09-14 14:23 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08? | SELL | 0.51 | $6.11 |
| 09-14 13:44 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08? | BUY | 0.52 | $155.86 |
| 09-11 06:19 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-12? | SELL | 0.44 | $24.46 |
| 09-11 05:30 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.45 | $297.73 |
| 06-26 09:46 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $47.64 |
| 06-26 09:39 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.995 | $31.53 |
| 06-26 09:30 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $47.70 |
| 06-26 09:19 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.985 | $10.84 |
| 06-26 09:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.05 |