0xf8d2a4939298a02fdea15e86d48bf74730a9a16e
0xf8d2a4939298a02fdea15e86d48bf74730a9a16e
- Realised P&L
- $23.51
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 244
- Open portfolio
- $1.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded244
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 29? · No | 0.380 | 0.340 | $1.34 | −$0.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.003 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 28? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 28? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.53at 0.084Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?
- +$7.05at 0.105Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$6.95at 0.291Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?
- +$6.49at 0.178Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 3?
- +$6.40at 0.136Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 17:05 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.3799999443 | $1.50 |
| 09-28 17:04 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.0124839994 | $0.85 |
| 09-28 14:46 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.34 |
| 09-28 12:58 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.6 | $2.67 |
| 09-28 10:58 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3399999595 | $1.51 |
| 09-28 09:23 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.08 |
| 09-28 08:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.25 |
| 09-28 08:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.32 |
| 09-28 08:08 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3399999855 | $1.41 |
| 09-28 08:07 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.45 |
| 09-28 08:07 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.07 |
| 09-28 04:24 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.5299998864 | $1.26 |
| 09-27 21:36 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.28 |
| 09-27 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.5799998403 | $1.38 |
| 09-27 13:43 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.71 | $1.45 |