RenranOt
0xf8c63b7ebee4b25b59733ca58cc7955493dc39c3
- Realised P&L
- $9.20
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $0.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Is Earth flat? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.007 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.16at 0.058Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$12.47at 0.750Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$2.92at 0.960Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$2.85at 0.419Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
- +$1.91at 0.609Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 22:52 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.60 |
| 09-10 22:51 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | SELL | 0.41 | $24.19 |
| 09-10 20:07 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.6099999942 | $36.00 |
| 07-29 19:29 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.046 | $0.90 |
| 07-29 19:29 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.27 | $8.18 |
| 07-29 18:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? | SELL | 0.347 | $2.83 |
| 07-29 18:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 07-29 16:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.74 | $37.00 |
| 07-29 16:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.255929593 | $23.26 |
| 07-20 12:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | SELL | 0.11 | $2.29 |
| 07-20 12:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 20:35 | Is Earth flat? | BUY | 0.0125486259 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 20:33 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0509999494 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 20:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? | BUY | 0.6129999691 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 20:31 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |