0xf8c56556515954da8bf0EB7018c125847BF5aC64-1734164075713
0xf8c56556515954da8bf0eb7018c125847bf5ac64
- Realised P&L
- $-26.35
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 161
- Open portfolio
- $128.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded161
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No | 0.993 | 0.997 | $67.74 | +$0.24 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 0.995 | $24.63 | +$0.04 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 9? · Yes | 0.997 | 0.993 | $24.49 | −$0.11 |
| Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $12.04 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.28at 0.993Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?
- +$0.26at 0.993Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.993Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?
- +$0.20at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 24?
- +$0.19at 0.995Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 09:30 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $24.59 |
| 10-08 08:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 9? | BUY | 0.997 | $24.60 |
| 10-05 14:41 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $11.00 |
| 10-03 02:49 | Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.50 |
| 09-29 23:05 | Will Solana dip to $90 in September? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.80 |
| 09-29 16:24 | Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997999964 | $13.60 |
| 09-27 18:23 | Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.00 |
| 09-25 02:52 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.9977566051 | $20.50 |
| 09-24 11:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 24? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $27.00 |
| 09-20 22:24 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $27.00 |
| 09-18 10:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.70 |
| 09-06 17:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 7? | BUY | 0.995 | $21.90 |
| 09-05 08:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.00 |
| 09-03 05:38 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $27.00 |
| 09-03 02:50 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.993999983 | $15.40 |