fireman8d2
0xf8adf1a3fc13c882f7c933a219eef3bdfe6497a3
- Realised P&L
- $-1.67
- Volume
- $132.4k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.230 | $921.56 | +$480.82 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $184.04 | −$306.69 |
| Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.038 | $4.27 | −$3.71 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.004 | $1.79 | −$8.79 |
| Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET · Down | 0.435 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.00 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? · No | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.37at 0.079Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$7.58at 0.270Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
- +$5.16at 0.380Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
- +$4.52at 0.790Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29?
- +$3.00at 0.800Pistons vs. Pacers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 11:09 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.004 | $490.78 |
| 07-24 18:14 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.955 | $10.61 |
| 04-16 17:33 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.116 | $1.16 |
| 03-12 14:33 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.13 |
| 03-02 20:36 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $10.00 |
| 02-14 08:31 | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.9655610639 | $11.00 |
| 01-27 19:36 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $12.07 |
| 01-25 14:56 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999879 | $11.00 |
| 01-25 14:53 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $9.15 |
| 01-16 04:07 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999401 | $3.00 |
| 01-03 06:18 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $22.00 |
| 12-31 04:30 | Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5799999901 | $7.00 |
| 12-29 15:25 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | BUY | 0.91 | $6.00 |
| 12-27 20:37 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | BUY | 0.3799999468 | $2.00 |
| 12-26 16:45 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.269999937 | $3.00 |