Ceszki
0xf8a31444bf74eb0ffd6d3b7274bb8d199e5ea8de
- Realised P&L
- $-3.71
- Volume
- $353.65
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $8.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 14? · No | 0.830 | 0.890 | $4.45 | +$0.30 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 12? · No | 0.810 | 0.815 | $4.08 | +$0.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.99 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 20? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 10? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.48 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on September 20? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.71at 0.390Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 3?
- +$1.37at 0.928Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?
- +$0.65at 0.870Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?
- +$0.57at 0.676Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 9?
- +$0.35at 0.792Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 19:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 10-10 19:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11? | SELL | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 10-10 08:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 11? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 10-09 15:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 10? | BUY | 0.32 | $4.48 |
| 10-09 15:05 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 9? | SELL | 0.783 | $4.70 |
| 10-09 01:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 9? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.96 |
| 10-09 01:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.57 | $3.99 |
| 10-08 22:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 14? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 09-18 17:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 17:06 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |