patricia57
0xf8930def6c6a123ed742152fc2f149aa98b897a4
- Realised P&L
- $-29.32
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $20.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.845 | $11.87 | +$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 23? · No | 0.540 | 0.420 | $9.06 | −$2.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.57at 0.720TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?
- +$3.62at 0.747Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$0.58at 0.630MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?
- +$0.11at 0.994Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$0.11at 0.993Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:49 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.96 |
| 01-30 15:39 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.19 |
| 01-30 14:34 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.87 |
| 01-30 12:18 | Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.50 |
| 12-30 09:32 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.11 |
| 12-30 02:37 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9929999985 | $2.63 |
| 12-30 01:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9988698968 | $6.68 |
| 12-30 01:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.23 |
| 12-29 21:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.68 |
| 10-30 23:26 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.36 |
| 10-30 21:25 | Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.05 |
| 09-29 10:52 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.03 |
| 09-28 19:59 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $15.76 |
| 09-28 19:58 | Xi Jinping out before October? | BUY | 0.998999994 | $18.87 |
| 08-31 13:20 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by August 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.46 |