Goat8524
0xf861192b5d52e8365e171b8bd6a7849ba9d4681f
- Realised P&L
- $-42.1k
- Volume
- $519.0k
- Markets traded
- 222
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded222
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.747Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$842.26at 0.526Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
- +$560.50at 0.419Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$541.54at 0.767US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$539.01at 0.240Biden drops out in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 09:58 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599999884 | $22.29 |
| 09-08 09:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 09:57 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 09:54 | No one announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.167 | $43.80 |
| 09-03 05:19 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.2759999935 | $21.93 |
| 09-03 05:18 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0259999975 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 05:18 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0259999975 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 05:17 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.025 | $62.10 |
| 09-03 05:17 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $124.00 |
| 09-03 05:12 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-03 05:12 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $16.00 |
| 09-03 05:09 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.142 | $28.40 |
| 09-03 05:08 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.057 | $5.70 |
| 09-03 05:08 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.048 | $47.71 |
| 09-03 05:08 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $9.90 |