Goat8524
0xf861192b5d52e8365e171b8bd6a7849ba9d4681f
- Realised P&L
- $-41.0k
- Volume
- $496.8k
- Markets traded
- 218
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded218
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.747Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$842.26at 0.527Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
- +$560.50at 0.419Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$541.54at 0.767US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$539.01at 0.240Biden drops out in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 03:50 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.006 | $6.00 |
| 07-30 03:48 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.034 | $20.40 |
| 07-30 03:48 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $90.00 |
| 07-30 03:48 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $18.00 |
| 07-30 03:47 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $210.00 |
| 07-30 03:46 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.049 | $98.00 |
| 07-30 03:42 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $154.43 |
| 07-30 03:40 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $140.00 |
| 07-30 03:40 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $105.00 |
| 07-25 09:16 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 07-25 09:15 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.02626393 | $18.48 |
| 07-25 09:10 | Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | SELL | 0.8899606317 | $201.19 |
| 07-25 09:09 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $574.85 |
| 07-19 04:17 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $5.12 |
| 07-19 04:15 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007877292 | $8.60 |