Lodespates
0xf82bbc01213d38d6fb470e9c82066bb1d37beb30
- Realised P&L
- $-10.48
- Volume
- $254.64
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $59.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.765 | $20.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.875 | $19.02 | −$0.98 |
| Will Cracker Barrel (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.845 | $10.20 | +$0.30 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.910 | 0.895 | $9.84 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.53at 0.708Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$4.20at 0.702Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$0.04at 0.959Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$-0.01at 0.991Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-0.17at 0.943GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 20:36 | Will Cracker Barrel (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8199999818 | $9.90 |
| 09-14 20:33 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.99 |
| 09-14 04:38 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 04:36 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.9199999963 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 04:35 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.9199999963 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 04:35 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.9933855756 | $14.32 |
| 09-14 04:35 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.997 | $15.66 |
| 09-13 18:32 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6930693062 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 18:31 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.93 | $9.89 |
| 09-13 18:25 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 18:25 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 18:24 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.3 | $11.69 |
| 09-13 15:02 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to C or KD? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.06 |
| 09-13 12:22 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7699999992 | $30.00 |
| 09-11 21:35 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to C or KD? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |