0xf800D8A2138a91548C14de2453Fe12E61bFF6554-1773053986761
0xf800d8a2138a91548c14de2453fe12e61bff6554
- Realised P&L
- $-184.31
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $21.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 11? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $16.30 | +$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 10? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.012 | $2.83 | −$33.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 11? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.325 | $1.30 | +$0.22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 11? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.029 | $0.78 | −$0.11 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 11? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.405 | $0.72 | +$0.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on October 10? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? · No | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$117.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.08at 0.724Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?
- +$25.18at 0.840Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?
- +$25.08at 0.636Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17?
- +$24.96at 0.407Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17?
- +$24.07at 0.675Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 08:27 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 10-09 08:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.03175 | $0.64 |
| 10-08 18:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.152804585 | $35.99 |
| 05-19 12:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 05-19 08:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 05-19 08:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 05-16 22:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? | BUY | 0.8299999992 | $130.50 |
| 05-16 22:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? | BUY | 0.5599999974 | $87.00 |
| 05-16 10:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? | SELL | 0.59 | $88.50 |
| 05-16 07:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? | BUY | 0.39 | $58.50 |
| 05-15 02:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? | BUY | 0.7099999989 | $111.00 |
| 05-15 02:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? | BUY | 0.7420718815 | $117.00 |
| 05-08 13:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? | SELL | 0.76 | $119.70 |
| 05-08 13:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? | SELL | 0.984 | $154.29 |
| 05-08 02:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $99.00 |