caldu4
0xf7ffe4351b7ab92ec22026a64d674b1056d74bb7
- Realised P&L
- $-262.57
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $13.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.066 | $6.41 | −$8.59 |
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.062 | $5.99 | −$4.01 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.012 | $1.20 | −$8.80 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-3.00at 0.025US strike on Colombia by March 31?
- +$-8.00at 0.080U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.037Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- +$-35.00at 0.094Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?
- +$-50.00at 0.150Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-21 20:25 | Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1256545106 | $99.00 |
| 03-20 14:17 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | BUY | 0.1499999976 | $50.00 |
| 03-20 07:40 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting? | BUY | 0.0956937799 | $26.00 |
| 03-18 15:39 | Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1091378024 | $10.00 |
| 03-18 15:38 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 03-18 15:38 | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BUY | 0.0251869568 | $3.00 |
| 03-18 15:35 | Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1034729188 | $10.00 |
| 03-18 15:35 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 03-18 15:34 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 03-18 15:33 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? | BUY | 0.1000628034 | $10.00 |
| 03-18 15:30 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.1518804701 | $15.00 |
| 03-18 15:29 | Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1544401544 | $15.00 |
| 03-18 15:25 | Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | BUY | 0.0370919519 | $10.00 |