0xf7FE12DE33f29c04326F62A2BAFEa820B14FE238-1743361181107
0xf7fe12de33f29c04326f62a2bafea820b14fe238
- Realised P&L
- $103.02
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $245.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion? · Yes | 0.406 | 0.530 | $130.49 | +$30.49 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.625 | $60.10 | +$10.10 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.585 | $55.19 | +$5.19 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 29? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.95at 0.059Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$27.62at 0.420Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?
- +$24.18at 0.450Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?
- +$18.33at 0.450Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
- +$17.04at 0.540Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 11:33 | Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion? | BUY | 0.4061492714 | $100.00 |
| 08-13 11:28 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999986 | $50.00 |
| 08-13 11:27 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999958 | $50.00 |
| 11-10 05:39 | Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? | SELL | 0.994 | $44.17 |
| 11-05 13:49 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? | SELL | 0.066 | $6.60 |
| 11-04 16:25 | Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.4199999933 | $20.00 |
| 11-04 16:24 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 11-04 16:24 | Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? | BUY | 0.4499999921 | $20.00 |
| 11-04 16:22 | Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | BUY | 0.5944154667 | $20.00 |
| 11-02 01:12 | Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition | BUY | 0.7699999935 | $20.00 |
| 11-02 01:11 | Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $20.00 |
| 11-02 01:08 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | SELL | 0.780219539 | $35.54 |
| 11-01 13:57 | Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 13:56 | Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | BUY | 0.5399999881 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 13:54 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.839999995 | $20.00 |