F84.5
0xf7b4b614e6565f0f067fa2685622e08c7dea2aea
- Realised P&L
- $143.19
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $141.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.233 | 0.535 | $93.21 | +$52.62 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8? · No | 0.920 | 0.969 | $48.45 | +$2.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$77.97at 0.798Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7?
- +$57.74at 0.771Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 7?
- +$2.84at 0.023Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 7?
- +$2.83at 0.011Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?
- +$1.82at 0.034Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 14:04 | Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.34 | $9.93 |
| 10-08 14:03 | Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.266 | $6.65 |
| 10-08 07:10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.37 |
| 10-07 19:46 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.808 | $16.16 |
| 10-07 19:19 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.8365177866 | $33.86 |
| 10-07 19:16 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.8 | $16.00 |
| 10-07 18:46 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 10-07 18:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.81 | $7.54 |
| 10-07 18:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.26 |
| 10-07 18:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.81 | $8.31 |
| 10-07 18:37 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 10-07 16:29 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.7472650957 | $101.48 |
| 10-07 15:09 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 7? | SELL | 0.0501484246 | $5.78 |
| 10-07 14:53 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 7? | SELL | 0.052 | $1.98 |
| 10-07 14:53 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 7? | SELL | 0.055 | $1.79 |