fpowqjgwvnwrog
0xf799e1b2a3b805c227befc1d9cee7322d99e4e7d
- Realised P&L
- $58.94
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 17? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.080 | $1.42 | −$1.42 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 14? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 14? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.04at 0.030Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30?
- +$0.95at 0.606Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 30?
- +$0.76at 0.620Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?
- +$0.46at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?
- +$0.25at 0.958Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 02:55 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-30 13:16 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.70 |
| 09-29 11:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.80 |