0xf754f72Fe80C3Cc7594dB8C38b60060aFe8D5C91-1769017936674
0xf754f72fe80c3cc7594db8c38b60060afe8d5c91
- Realised P&L
- $-256.68
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $10.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusk out by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.080 | $10.14 | −$1.27 |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.80 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.423 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$210.49 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.241 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.88 |
| Bill Clinton charged by March 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.10at 0.310Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$20.00at 0.500Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$17.68at 0.510Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?
- +$8.01at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$0.20at 0.005Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 09:08 | Tusk out by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999998 | $11.41 |
| 10-31 09:06 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $11.41 |
| 03-15 21:04 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $55.44 |
| 03-15 21:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $55.38 |
| 03-04 06:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $58.30 |
| 03-01 07:21 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.52 | $126.41 |
| 03-01 07:20 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $126.42 |
| 03-01 05:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.56 |
| 03-01 04:53 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.007 | $1.11 |
| 02-28 16:44 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.0151636983 | $2.89 |
| 02-28 10:14 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.53 |
| 02-28 10:12 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.265 | $22.32 |
| 01-30 16:53 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.3099999947 | $37.69 |
| 01-30 16:47 | Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | SELL | 0.9603852229 | $37.70 |
| 01-30 05:33 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.63 |