0xf754a38cD6f3baea93382620d9947bC1C6dD60aE-1775856842981
0xf754a38cd6f3baea93382620d9947bc1c6dd60ae
- Realised P&L
- $-198.19
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $41.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.405 | $17.23 | −$2.77 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.054 | $7.99 | −$2.01 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.415 | $7.16 | −$2.84 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.021 | $5.38 | −$4.62 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.030 | $4.07 | −$5.93 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.73at 0.694Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
- +$20.54at 0.736Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
- +$17.96at 0.734Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$13.52at 0.655Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
- +$11.73at 0.630Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 05:23 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0519999941 | $8.00 |
| 06-13 05:23 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1059999912 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 05:23 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1609999871 | $10.00 |
| 04-29 23:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | BUY | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 04-29 23:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | BUY | 0.36 | $3.60 |
| 04-29 23:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 04-29 23:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2713147287 | $8.75 |
| 04-29 23:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 04-29 23:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 04-29 23:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | BUY | 0.8399999966 | $10.00 |
| 04-29 23:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 04-29 23:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.07 |
| 04-29 23:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.71 |
| 04-29 23:03 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.036 | $0.95 |
| 04-29 23:02 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.78 |