Rivera05492
0xf741f6981fec0fb3127a82a647bd0f3c6f0703c9
- Realised P&L
- $-8.94
- Volume
- $164.4k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $8.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30? · No | 0.997 | 0.966 | $8.79 | −$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.56at 0.924Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?
- +$0.45at 0.950Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in October?
- +$0.28at 0.970Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.25at 0.953Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
- +$0.25at 0.976Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 07:31 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.08 |
| 08-08 11:34 | Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31? | BUY | 0.9751608849 | $10.25 |
| 08-08 11:33 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $7.12 |
| 07-21 12:22 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9579999945 | $7.00 |
| 06-08 02:49 | Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.92 |
| 06-08 02:49 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | SELL | 0.982 | $9.07 |
| 05-14 14:02 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | BUY | 0.9689999995 | $8.96 |
| 04-06 10:40 | Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9869999958 | $10.67 |
| 03-19 10:07 | Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9889999746 | $10.55 |
| 03-19 10:06 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $10.55 |
| 02-23 10:58 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.969999916 | $10.28 |
| 02-23 10:57 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | SELL | 0.977 | $10.28 |
| 02-02 05:57 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | BUY | 0.9529999885 | $10.03 |
| 01-13 04:48 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by January 31? | BUY | 0.982 | $9.85 |
| 12-19 04:00 | US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2025? | BUY | 0.9833890573 | $9.69 |