mmcf1
0xf74179521cfe90d80445af5b9c4d0090bda3b94b
- Realised P&L
- $5.27
- Volume
- $155.99
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $52.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $20.55 | +$5.55 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.522 | 0.535 | $15.39 | +$0.39 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.117 | $4.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.185 | $4.63 | −$0.38 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.365 | $2.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.225 | $2.41 | −$0.59 |
| Will David Lisnard win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.080 | $1.73 | −$0.27 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 15:55 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4 | $3.00 |
| 10-18 15:55 | Will David Lisnard win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0919999976 | $2.00 |
| 10-18 15:55 | Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2799999925 | $3.00 |
| 10-18 15:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.7297567399 | $15.00 |
| 10-18 15:48 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 15:47 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.119760479 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 15:47 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5219999852 | $15.00 |