0xf70f149fcb213f503Ba5017065adDA50B1270629-1764636021357
0xf70f149fcb213f503ba5017065adda50b1270629
- Realised P&L
- $-10.76
- Volume
- $182.78
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $9.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? · Yes | 0.240 | 1.000 | $4.17 | +$3.17 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.085 | $2.13 | −$2.88 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.979 | $1.78 | +$0.78 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 1.000 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Maduro out in 2025? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.69at 0.650Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.54at 0.902Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
- +$0.47at 0.680Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
- +$0.06at 0.970Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 05:57 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 05:54 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 23:35 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 05-06 03:18 | Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 03-01 15:43 | Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |
| 03-01 15:34 | Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 03-01 15:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $4.98 |
| 12-02 01:55 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 12-02 01:51 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | BUY | 0.2299309551 | $2.00 |
| 12-02 01:50 | Maduro out in 2025? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 12-02 01:49 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.00 |