0x10328E21199d5049644Ba7b74C9263612240b7E2-1778606816362
0xf703648a1313336f98ed4d1518ab8cf538ddbb15
- Realised P&L
- $-915.79
- Volume
- $21.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $52.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $33.74 | −$13.24 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.151 | $9.37 | −$0.51 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.255 | $8.12 | −$3.03 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.087 | $1.44 | +$0.11 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.21 |
| US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.61 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.18 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.76 |
| Patriots vs. Broncos · Broncos | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$242.64 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$427.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.54at 0.100Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$50.29at 0.540Bills vs. Broncos
- +$20.63at 0.480Bills vs. Jaguars
- +$-19.02at 0.080Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$-80.34at 0.338Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 08:04 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999984 | $11.15 |
| 09-14 08:53 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1596956034 | $9.88 |
| 08-28 02:22 | Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0062666822 | $46.99 |
| 08-05 03:37 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.0979999916 | $10.05 |
| 08-05 03:27 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.2409999915 | $19.13 |
| 06-03 19:13 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1297723412 | $67.15 |
| 06-02 19:51 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.24 | $72.03 |
| 05-12 17:25 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.3099999995 | $288.72 |
| 01-25 22:41 | Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.0628790279 | $69.86 |
| 01-24 07:14 | Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $88.88 |
| 01-24 07:13 | Patriots vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.3299999992 | $242.64 |
| 01-24 07:12 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.13 | $236.35 |
| 01-17 21:32 | Bills vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.5399999974 | $59.04 |
| 01-15 16:39 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1 | $181.81 |
| 01-15 15:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $99.99 |