belicnno
0xf6e30502a5313a3240f48f8b2fd501616d3dde04
- Realised P&L
- $-239.87
- Volume
- $55.6k
- Markets traded
- 178
- Open portfolio
- $958.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded178
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.312 | 0.540 | $418.89 | +$176.89 |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.724 | $245.46 | +$131.70 |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.232 | 0.485 | $179.87 | +$94.05 |
| Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC after March 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.425 | $50.58 | +$11.30 |
| Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.297 | 0.315 | $27.08 | +$1.55 |
| Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.530 | $18.02 | +$6.46 |
| GTA VI released by November 30? · No | 0.044 | 0.029 | $10.03 | −$4.93 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.037 | $8.70 | −$9.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$292.02at 0.779Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?
- +$161.67at 0.822Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$90.28at 0.557Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
- +$89.58at 0.760Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner
- +$74.57at 0.144Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 06:26 | Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $18.00 |
| 11-01 06:25 | Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $7.53 |
| 10-30 12:52 | Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $11.56 |
| 10-30 12:51 | Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC after March 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $39.27 |
| 10-30 12:48 | Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94? | SELL | 0.118 | $52.14 |
| 10-17 00:58 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.2703720305 | $18.85 |
| 10-15 11:10 | GTA VI released by November 30? | BUY | 0.044 | $14.96 |
| 10-15 11:06 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.377 | $37.70 |
| 10-15 11:00 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.33 | $76.37 |
| 10-11 05:30 | Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94? | BUY | 0.072 | $31.82 |
| 09-28 02:26 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $10.00 |
| 09-24 14:57 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-24 03:33 | Will Trump say "Economy" or "Economic" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 09-24 03:32 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 09-17 12:40 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.29 | $11.60 |