33pls
0xf6dcbdb567c6ffd20c31822f76012e0b73cb246e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $1.01M
- Markets traded
- 366
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded366
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.575 | $1.4k | −$60.00 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.592 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.36 |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July? · No | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.793 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$413.99 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.944 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.9k |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.807 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.263 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$526.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 29-July 5? · No | 0.884 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5? · No | 0.599 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19? · No | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$252.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.483Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?
- +$6.2kat 0.497Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?
- +$4.4kat 0.452Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$3.3kat 0.661Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April?
- +$2.8kat 0.529Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 14:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | SELL | 0.72 | $258.53 |
| 07-15 12:59 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19? | BUY | 0.6128666667 | $367.72 |
| 07-14 15:55 | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19? | BUY | 0.21 | $252.00 |
| 07-02 17:44 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? | BUY | 0.79 | $344.76 |
| 07-02 17:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | BUY | 0.6 | $102.21 |
| 07-01 05:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.69 | $71.84 |
| 06-20 18:20 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.68 | $67.99 |
| 06-20 16:47 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? | BUY | 0.92 | $84.64 |
| 06-12 15:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? | BUY | 0.79 | $79.00 |
| 06-12 14:09 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? | BUY | 0.945 | $236.25 |
| 06-08 19:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 06-06 21:29 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY | 0.959 | $85.35 |
| 06-06 21:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.4k |
| 06-05 19:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $380.00 |
| 06-05 19:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $445.00 |