20micmic
0xf6ce756199089cee8edeff41a51a1c8f11e14aa3
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $48.7k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $2.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government shutdown by October 1? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.007 | $2.33 | −$243.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.122US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$204.29at 0.350US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
- +$150.00at 0.400Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 8)
- +$88.68at 0.530Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
- +$81.63at 0.494Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 03:31 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.581999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-15 03:30 | Government shutdown by October 1? | BUY | 0.79 | $245.78 |
| 03-14 19:54 | Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico | BUY | 0.2399999856 | $10.00 |
| 03-14 19:53 | Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $50.00 |
| 03-12 00:21 | First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy | BUY | 0.84 | $210.00 |
| 03-04 14:30 | Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5299999983 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 16:00 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? | BUY | 0.1801692439 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 15:13 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 8) | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 03-01 00:17 | Trump out as President before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4875705331 | $500.00 |
| 02-26 01:03 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.8379999997 | $200.00 |
| 02-26 01:02 | Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.3399999912 | $20.00 |
| 02-23 15:13 | US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.9652082611 | $551.74 |
| 02-23 15:13 | US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $500.00 |
| 02-23 15:11 | US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999982 | $110.00 |
| 02-21 15:53 | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739999984 | $508.13 |