0xf6c23cde3a45d7fe07e4d28a7a94c258ebc0a154
0xf6c23cde3a45d7fe07e4d28a7a94c258ebc0a154
- Realised P&L
- $2.44
- Volume
- $529.79
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $8.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron say "Nvidia" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.780 | $2.28 | +$0.32 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.973 | $2.23 | +$0.10 |
| Will Trump say "Reagan" during his rally in Oklahoma? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.765 | $1.78 | −$0.08 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his rally in Oklahoma? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.395 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.165 | $0.90 | −$1.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.02at 0.240Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
- +$4.11at 0.290Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events with Rutte?
- +$4.11at 0.329Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Rally?
- +$3.93at 0.360Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
- +$3.52at 0.360Will Trump post "Ballroom" on Truth Social this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 11:44 | Will Trump say "Maduro" during Coast Guard event? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 05-19 11:41 | Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Coast Guard event? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.95 |
| 05-15 13:51 | Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.19 |
| 05-09 12:58 | Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 05-09 12:43 | Will Trump post "FBI" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.01 | $2.16 |
| 05-03 18:20 | Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 05-03 18:09 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 04-30 20:01 | Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1? | BUY | 0.359999913 | $1.82 |
| 04-27 10:16 | Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" in April? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 04-27 09:58 | Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.4599999719 | $2.29 |
| 04-26 13:30 | Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 04-26 13:08 | Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? | BUY | 0.2330316742 | $1.93 |
| 04-21 09:11 | Will Coursera (COUR) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.44 |
| 04-20 16:52 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on April 20? | BUY | 0.3599999377 | $1.76 |
| 04-20 16:25 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on April 20? | BUY | 0.7299999225 | $2.40 |