cryptobtc
0xf657367a9c0cf721b21e68e819ccbc4dc3eccc4b
- Realised P&L
- $-118.01
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $14.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.065 | $14.98 | −$114.06 |
| Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.88at 0.660Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
- +$6.44at 0.941Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?
- +$3.31at 0.968Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30?
- +$1.57at 0.955Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$1.40at 0.940Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-17 03:18 | Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 12-17 03:14 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | SELL | 0.995 | $25.40 |
| 10-19 09:22 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.94 | $24.00 |
| 10-09 03:24 | Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? | BUY | 0.9679999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-09 03:23 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | SELL | 0.8175744175 | $123.87 |
| 10-03 18:11 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.66 | $100.00 |
| 10-03 18:10 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7 | $94.59 |
| 10-02 20:36 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7399999988 | $100.00 |
| 10-02 20:36 | Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | SELL | 0.97 | $101.57 |
| 09-17 03:01 | Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.00 |
| 08-09 23:19 | Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9550163332 | $100.00 |
| 05-31 21:13 | Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | BUY | 0.0491371516 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 18:11 | Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | BUY | 0.3699999875 | $16.00 |
| 12-29 09:12 | Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $11.00 |
| 10-27 12:27 | Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |