0xf64ba92ea274b48b5d95f2620aea7aaf7c9a199f
- Realised P&L
- $5.43
- Volume
- $298.02
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $82.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.82at 0.500Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- +$0.80at 0.400Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
- +$0.30at 0.850China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.920Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
- +$-0.01at 0.880Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 11:41 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.947 | $5.68 |
| 07-12 09:41 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 07-07 18:52 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.61 |
| 06-20 00:04 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $6.73 |
| 06-16 23:06 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $7.92 |
| 06-08 00:31 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.82 |
| 04-24 21:20 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.208 | $1.04 |
| 04-22 21:03 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.879 | $15.82 |
| 04-19 18:01 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $10.92 |
| 04-19 18:01 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.98 |
| 04-15 21:48 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.21 |
| 04-12 11:12 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 04-12 11:11 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 04-12 11:11 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.977 | $13.68 |
| 04-10 09:15 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.881 | $7.05 |