ragrazila
0xf6384f10620004fffc0b1b1e6c441094ede21611
- Realised P&L
- $-192.79
- Volume
- $24.6k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $21.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.065 | $16.71 | −$73.29 |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.013 | $5.28 | −$14.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$270.83at 0.256US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$73.76at 0.804Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$70.60at 0.066Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
- +$50.39at 0.649US military action against Iran before July?
- +$25.79at 0.016Israel strike on Iran on June 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 20:20 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $109.11 |
| 03-20 18:05 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.189999991 | $16.67 |
| 03-20 18:05 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $15.67 |
| 03-15 06:20 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0589999946 | $10.00 |
| 03-15 06:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.37 | $10.57 |
| 03-14 01:52 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.012 | $15.00 |
| 03-13 20:25 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3499999986 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 18:48 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.0389999963 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 20:10 | Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 03-02 20:10 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0492644085 | $20.00 |
| 03-02 19:59 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6699999882 | $50.00 |
| 03-02 19:57 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6699999882 | $50.00 |
| 03-01 03:33 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.37 |
| 02-28 09:06 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.5399999981 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 07:31 | US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $365.07 |