bufankun
0xf5ee68d0832b36a631ae58f523b6ec2276e66335
- Realised P&L
- $-17.89
- Volume
- $15.0k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $13.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $11.68 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.730 | $2.21 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.63 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.84 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 25? · Up | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 23? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.31 |
| Flames vs. Kings · Kings | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.77 |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.42 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 25? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.72at 0.989US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?
- +$0.94at 0.994US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?
- +$0.45at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.42at 0.981Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12?
- +$0.28at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:40 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.70 |
| 10-18 11:38 | Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7399997621 | $2.24 |
| 09-10 09:13 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? | BUY | 0.99874234 | $11.90 |
| 09-10 09:11 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.8599999602 | $1.73 |
| 08-28 13:07 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.70 |
| 07-23 08:59 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.60 |
| 06-12 02:32 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.22 |
| 06-12 02:32 | Epstein client list released by June 30? | BUY | 0.9819999863 | $1.00 |
| 06-12 02:31 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in June 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999991 | $1.11 |
| 06-12 02:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.20 |
| 06-12 02:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? | BUY | 0.9989992464 | $1.14 |
| 06-12 02:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.9799999804 | $22.00 |
| 06-12 02:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 06-12 02:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.9989992913 | $1.17 |
| 06-12 02:29 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.20 |