afafaf142
0xf5856d2ad251b8fe48c0a6cc67a9e32e1d7726d6
- Realised P&L
- $-8.32
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $0.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Seattle have between 1.75 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in October? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$14.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.28at 0.426Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?
- +$6.69at 0.620Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7?
- +$3.15at 0.763Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?
- +$2.20at 0.560SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.67at 0.640Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 01:03 | Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October? | SELL | 0.921 | $18.36 |
| 10-29 01:03 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | SELL | 0.669 | $15.71 |
| 10-23 20:29 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.6404295445 | $15.04 |
| 02-09 09:01 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 01-27 14:07 | Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 12-18 04:37 | Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.994 | $10.52 |
| 12-18 04:37 | Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.53 |
| 11-08 17:26 | Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.996 | $119.21 |
| 11-08 17:26 | Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.996 | $111.55 |
| 11-08 17:26 | Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.997 | $231.00 |
| 11-08 17:26 | Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.996 | $111.19 |
| 11-08 17:26 | Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.996 | $102.59 |
| 11-08 17:25 | Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.997 | $214.00 |
| 11-08 17:25 | Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.997 | $85.18 |
| 11-08 17:25 | Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.997 | $135.59 |