simpleinvestor
0xf56710c938232eb3a18f4116519f02c12fa5d3ef
- Realised P&L
- $-8.4k
- Volume
- $322.5k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $338.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.016 | $338.98 | −$6.7k |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.358 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$835.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.584Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7?
- +$132.54at 0.547Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
- +$94.28at 0.250Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$64.98at 0.350US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
- +$54.71at 0.258Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 07:13 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $151.38 |
| 07-17 02:13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.414 | $1.2k |
| 07-16 13:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.42 | $126.00 |
| 07-07 12:04 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? | BUY | 0.492534389 | $281.79 |
| 07-07 06:03 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? | BUY | 0.5949815241 | $2.7k |
| 07-03 11:32 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 5? | SELL | 0.56 | $8.19 |
| 07-03 08:56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3055844842 | $3.4k |
| 06-30 05:47 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $111.80 |
| 06-30 00:12 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.358569086 | $1.4k |
| 06-29 12:18 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $3.3k |
| 06-29 12:06 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $1.8k |
| 06-28 02:48 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 06-27 13:34 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $15.72 |
| 06-27 13:32 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $11.56 |
| 06-27 13:27 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |