StevenSmith1724
0xf5289763a5b57084d78e2e33fd1af2714efc4441
- Realised P&L
- $-457.40
- Volume
- $241.8k
- Markets traded
- 319
- Open portfolio
- $172.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded319
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$266.06at 0.414Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?
- +$210.25at 0.145Will Blue Prince win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$184.58at 0.090Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- +$179.74at 0.140Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$74.10at 0.740Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 09:13 | Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.899 | $24.27 |
| 04-21 04:36 | Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.898 | $22.45 |
| 02-08 19:11 | Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 01-11 07:46 | Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes? | SELL | 0.7 | $26.60 |
| 01-11 07:40 | Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes? | SELL | 0.14 | $36.82 |
| 01-11 05:20 | Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes? | BUY | 0.17 | $44.71 |
| 01-11 04:10 | Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes? | SELL | 0.69 | $627.90 |
| 01-11 02:57 | Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes? | BUY | 0.69 | $654.12 |
| 01-11 02:25 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | SELL | 0.66 | $211.20 |
| 01-11 02:22 | Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes? | SELL | 0.14 | $66.64 |
| 01-11 01:53 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $149.52 |
| 01-11 01:52 | Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes? | BUY | 0.17 | $80.92 |
| 01-11 01:39 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.52 |
| 01-11 00:45 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | SELL | 0.725 | $188.50 |
| 01-10 18:55 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | BUY | 0.66 | $211.20 |