election5100
0xf516087a8919e6af47770f114436a31728d06f6f
- Realised P&L
- $138.47
- Volume
- $35.7k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $799.52
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on October 10? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $265.95 | +$0.13 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.971 | 0.972 | $194.30 | +$0.10 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? · No | 0.979 | 0.988 | $148.13 | +$1.23 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? · Yes | 0.952 | 0.946 | $104.06 | −$0.66 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.957 | 0.964 | $39.52 | +$0.27 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.825 | $24.75 | −$0.15 |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No | 0.943 | 0.947 | $22.81 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$263.40at 0.602Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?
- +$115.00at 0.500Panthers vs. Lightning
- +$75.20at 0.530Ripple above $2.35 on February 14?
- +$14.11at 0.835Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
- +$7.26at 0.993Will SOL flip ETH in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 02:58 | Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? | BUY | 0.952 | $104.72 |
| 10-10 02:58 | Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | BUY | 0.943 | $22.73 |
| 10-10 02:56 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.971 | $194.20 |
| 10-10 02:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on October 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $265.81 |
| 10-10 02:48 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $24.90 |
| 09-30 07:20 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.9573902439 | $39.25 |
| 09-30 07:18 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.22 |
| 09-30 07:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | BUY | 0.978 | $48.90 |
| 09-30 07:14 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in September? | BUY | 0.9937202 | $49.69 |
| 09-30 07:13 | Will the biggest earthquake on September 30, 2026 be under 5.3? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 09-30 07:10 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Chile this month? | BUY | 0.97 | $29.10 |
| 09-30 04:00 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $44.95 |
| 09-30 04:00 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $255 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $154.42 |
| 09-30 03:58 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.75 |
| 09-30 03:54 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $231.02 |