0xf50Fd89431Df96fC5D9ac24B1e208EE88cee676E-1774265600709
0xf50fd89431df96fc5d9ac24b1e208ee88cee676e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.36
- Volume
- $222.30
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $23.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.938 | $16.88 | −$0.04 |
| Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.820 | 0.970 | $6.79 | +$1.05 |
| Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.037 | $0.28 | −$0.84 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.002 | $0.03 | −$0.98 |
| Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.80 |
| Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.15 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? · No | 0.415 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.550Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
- +$1.51at 0.699Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- +$0.42at 0.958Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?
- +$0.22at 0.956Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
- +$0.21at 0.958Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 07:22 | Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 05-01 07:17 | Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.74 |
| 05-01 07:17 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.14 |
| 05-01 07:17 | Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.82 | $5.74 |
| 05-01 07:17 | Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 05-01 07:17 | Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1518644068 | $1.12 |
| 05-01 07:17 | Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 05-01 05:59 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 04-27 09:33 | Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.51 | $1.53 |
| 04-27 09:33 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY | 0.45 | $1.35 |
| 04-26 09:00 | Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.25 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 04-26 06:28 | Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $16.92 |
| 04-26 06:28 | Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.056 | $1.01 |
| 04-26 03:55 | Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.25 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.92 |
| 04-22 06:40 | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.959 | $4.79 |