MannerKno
0xf4e90dfd63fec36a8c62f51f8c0733fc6315245d
- Realised P&L
- $-140.88
- Volume
- $470.9k
- Markets traded
- 307
- Open portfolio
- $9.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded307
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.30at 0.005Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US?
- +$2.60at 0.018Will Alex Caruso win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
- +$2.36at 0.143Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2026?
- +$1.74at 0.04350-year GSE-eligible mortgages by December 31?
- +$1.69at 0.071Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-17 05:15 | Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.277 | $16.31 |
| 12-17 04:58 | Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.47 |
| 12-17 04:53 | Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.47 |
| 12-17 04:34 | Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.64 |
| 12-17 04:23 | Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.20 |
| 12-17 04:19 | Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.064 | $11.18 |
| 12-17 04:15 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.11 |
| 12-17 04:01 | Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.47 |
| 12-17 03:51 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.06 |
| 12-17 03:46 | Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $1.55 |
| 12-17 03:31 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.06 |
| 12-17 03:30 | Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.20 |
| 12-17 03:23 | Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.12 | $14.50 |
| 12-17 03:14 | Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.47 |
| 12-17 03:06 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.09 |