PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MannerKno

0xf4e90dfd63fec36a8c62f51f8c0733fc6315245d

Realised P&L
$-135.53
Volume
$470.9k
Markets traded
307
Open portfolio
$13.90

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded307
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration37.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.0370.025$5.14$2.62
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? · Yes0.0200.019$3.82$0.06
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0280.019$2.36$1.09
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? · Yes0.1730.025$0.98$5.91
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0090.003$0.74$1.91
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? · Yes0.0710.011$0.33$1.82
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · Yes0.0570.022$0.19$0.28
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? · Yes0.0160.002$0.15$1.55
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0210.018$0.12$0.02
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0480.004$0.05$0.66
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0270.001$0.03$1.34
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.0230.001$0.01$0.29
Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00$1.07
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes0.0640.000$0.00$12.45
Will Jamahl Mosley win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00$1.03

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-02 06:32Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.006$0.06
12-17 05:15Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY0.277$16.31
12-17 04:58Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?BUY0.006$1.47
12-17 04:53Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?BUY0.006$1.47
12-17 04:34Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?BUY0.064$1.64
12-17 04:23Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?BUY0.07$2.20
12-17 04:19Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.064$11.18
12-17 04:15Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?BUY0.013$1.11
12-17 04:01Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?BUY0.006$1.47
12-17 03:51Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine?BUY0.005$2.06
12-17 03:46Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?BUY0.031$1.55
12-17 03:31Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine?BUY0.005$2.06
12-17 03:30Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?BUY0.07$2.20
12-17 03:23Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?BUY0.12$14.50
12-17 03:14Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?BUY0.006$1.47