benderrob
0xf4b574c632559609d61abd20a18b1c73ac109cac
- Realised P&L
- $-80.72
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $3.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.130 | $2.60 | −$3.20 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.018 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.045 | $0.24 | −$1.76 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.50 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.20 |
| Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.50 |
| Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.25at 0.639Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$14.40at 0.280Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?
- +$13.52at 0.270Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March?
- +$13.52at 0.270Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
- +$12.60at 0.370US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 19:10 | Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 09-10 19:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 03-29 16:07 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.21 | $21.00 |
| 01-20 17:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 01-20 17:56 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 01-20 17:56 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.022999978 | $1.00 |
| 01-20 17:54 | Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.24 | $7.20 |
| 01-20 17:53 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 01-20 17:53 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 01-20 17:52 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $9.50 |
| 06-06 15:50 | Starmer out in 2025? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 06-06 15:49 | Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? | BUY | 0.3499999475 | $3.00 |
| 06-06 15:48 | Giza Pyramid underground structures confirmed? | BUY | 0.14999994 | $2.00 |
| 06-06 15:47 | Is John McAfee alive? | BUY | 0.0346191726 | $2.00 |
| 06-06 15:47 | Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |