0xf4ab04039b256d36657e9d7e2b4cf60b41a69810
0xf4ab04039b256d36657e9d7e2b4cf60b41a69810
- Realised P&L
- $1.80
- Volume
- $544.49
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $1.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.620 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.550 | 0.395 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$5.09at 0.288Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 05:18 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 05:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 06:59 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7979998931 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:57 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 14:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 06:54 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 22:38 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:37 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:34 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 18:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 22:28 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 12:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |