David1203
0xf4a41492e01585ce8c584b32f98e0fa72ea1c284
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $35.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,496
- Open portfolio
- $405.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,496
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.28at 0.631Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11AM ET
- +$120.06at 0.597Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 11AM ET
- +$98.05at 0.550Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 5AM ET
- +$58.12at 0.632Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9PM ET
- +$55.00at 0.350Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 10:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October? | SELL | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 10-15 10:24 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $74.72 |
| 10-14 15:09 | Will White House post 200+ posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.4123571429 | $11.55 |
| 10-14 15:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14? | SELL | 0.22 | $10.87 |
| 10-14 12:18 | Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $225.40 |
| 10-14 11:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.921 | $45.49 |
| 10-14 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $126.11 |
| 10-14 11:49 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.60 |
| 10-13 13:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.895 | $19.13 |
| 10-13 13:03 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 13? | BUY | 0.9549403018 | $174.68 |
| 10-13 11:37 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.7202501251 | $14.40 |
| 10-13 06:42 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13? | SELL | 0.133907 | $1.34 |
| 10-13 01:45 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.36395 | $2.91 |
| 10-12 15:27 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.8518 | $17.04 |
| 10-12 12:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 13? | SELL | 0.968 | $19.36 |