trader-f479078a
0xf479078a8ec6e723f3d51af54f5364a4bf84d6d5
- Realised P&L
- $-43.72
- Volume
- $5.4k
- Markets traded
- 185
- Open portfolio
- $3.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded185
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.150 | $3.00 | −$0.60 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.005 | $0.11 | −$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$4.20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.79 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.59 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on September 28? · No | 0.700 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.99at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 19?
- +$10.80at 0.390Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 15 and 17.5 million views on day 1?
- +$10.35at 0.500Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
- +$10.00at 0.500Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 13?
- +$10.00at 0.500Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 18:48 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 09-27 18:46 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 09-26 12:02 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 09-24 19:18 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 24? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.35 |
| 09-23 07:42 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $4.81 |
| 09-22 14:44 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 09-21 20:59 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 22? | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 17:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $2.54 |
| 09-18 18:47 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.89 |
| 09-18 18:46 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.82 |
| 09-18 13:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $4.42 |
| 09-18 09:11 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.02 |
| 09-14 12:54 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 09-14 08:21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 09-11 08:44 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 12? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |