0xf466224d70a25c91bdf9fbba4a62bfa8a153be63
- Realised P&L
- $22.12
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $125.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.295 | $41.21 | +$2.62 |
| Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? · No | 0.280 | 0.285 | $39.29 | +$0.68 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.530 | $23.12 | +$3.12 |
| Will Rodri join Real Madrid? · No | 0.218 | 0.241 | $10.61 | +$0.99 |
| Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.058 | $9.47 | −$0.08 |
| Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.003 | $1.67 | −$7.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.935Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?
- +$-4.84at 0.350Will LKP Motor Lublin win on 2026-07-31?
- +$-17.38at 0.168Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 07:30 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.9622343933 | $123.16 |
| 07-31 19:33 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999915 | $19.29 |
| 07-31 14:45 | Will LKP Motor Lublin win on 2026-07-31? | BUY | 0.3499999638 | $4.84 |
| 07-31 14:15 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2855601762 | $9.65 |
| 07-31 14:14 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2799999849 | $9.65 |
| 07-31 14:12 | Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain? | BUY | 0.0171224416 | $9.53 |
| 07-31 14:10 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.2799999951 | $38.61 |
| 07-31 14:05 | Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.0579999944 | $9.55 |
| 07-31 14:02 | Will Rodri join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.2185460814 | $9.62 |
| 07-31 13:58 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.9318091727 | $99.65 |
| 07-30 14:20 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.9499999762 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 14:46 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.4589999955 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 07:28 | Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.0220191532 | $2.62 |
| 07-29 07:28 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.21 | $60.00 |
| 07-24 13:08 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.0699999969 | $20.00 |