0xf466224d70a25c91bdf9fbba4a62bfa8a153be63
- Realised P&L
- $61.25
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $35.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.568 | $24.73 | +$4.73 |
| Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.065 | $10.70 | +$1.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$546.58at 0.018Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain?
- +$59.01at 0.253Will Rafael Leao join Galatasaray?
- +$36.63at 0.290Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?
- +$17.21at 0.286Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
- +$16.45at 0.735Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 16:58 | Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City? | SELL | 0.8889827269 | $96.76 |
| 08-30 16:58 | Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? | SELL | 0.153501 | $36.07 |
| 08-28 10:32 | Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City? | BUY | 0.7289999925 | $79.35 |
| 08-28 10:26 | Will Rafael Leao join Galatasaray? | BUY | 0.2474683544 | $19.55 |
| 08-28 10:18 | Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? | BUY | 0.418186432 | $98.28 |
| 08-05 18:49 | Will Rodri join Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.351 | $15.45 |
| 08-05 18:49 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.4215962777 | $58.90 |
| 08-05 18:43 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.3 | $41.37 |
| 08-01 07:30 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.9622343933 | $123.16 |
| 07-31 19:33 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999915 | $19.29 |
| 07-31 14:45 | Will LKP Motor Lublin win on 2026-07-31? | BUY | 0.3499999638 | $4.84 |
| 07-31 14:15 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2855601762 | $9.65 |
| 07-31 14:14 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2799999849 | $9.65 |
| 07-31 14:12 | Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain? | BUY | 0.0171224416 | $9.53 |
| 07-31 14:10 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.2799999951 | $38.61 |