0xF458633051AD521Ba5a2Ef7E4E86D76A7a027799-1730813945129
0xf458633051ad521ba5a2ef7e4e86d76a7a027799
- Realised P&L
- $-104.00
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $8.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 2? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $5.00 | −$4.99 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 2? · No | 0.007 | 0.003 | $3.57 | −$6.43 |
| Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$90.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$976.47at 0.170Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$-200.00at 0.067Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$-400.00at 0.471Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 21:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 14:34 | Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0285712606 | $25.00 |
| 10-27 14:34 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0671754416 | $200.00 |
| 10-27 14:33 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1699999999 | $200.00 |
| 10-27 14:33 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.4706335684 | $400.00 |
| 07-19 21:45 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.1099999989 | $90.00 |
| 11-25 16:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? | BUY | 0.0170495071 | $10.00 |