Certify0148
0xf44dcf50490507a44a6244dc07f50686e71060af
- Realised P&L
- $5.0k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $9.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.945 | $3.7k | +$812.85 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.055 | $2.5k | −$4.6k |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.621 | 0.125 | $2.1k | −$8.2k |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes | 0.422 | 0.255 | $1.6k | −$1.0k |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.74 |
| Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$496.09 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.8kat 0.591Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
- +$4.6kat 0.985Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$3.6kat 0.643Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.334Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.262Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 03:03 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | SELL | 0.8963207861 | $565.53 |
| 07-23 03:02 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.89602595 | $1.8k |
| 07-13 00:21 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $26.51 |
| 07-10 06:23 | Anthropic acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.9512814412 | $27.99 |
| 07-10 06:22 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.869445287 | $2.2k |
| 07-08 22:50 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.71 | $310.27 |
| 07-08 18:16 | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.9546795529 | $3.1k |
| 07-08 18:00 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.6599505191 | $1.3k |
| 07-08 17:59 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.9614528219 | $2.3k |
| 07-08 17:58 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.9709435318 | $760.69 |
| 07-08 17:58 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.9736061134 | $1.0k |
| 07-08 17:57 | Anthropic acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.949 | $42.52 |
| 07-08 17:56 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.6168156028 | $1.9k |
| 07-08 17:55 | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | SELL | 0.5990864323 | $35.28 |
| 07-08 04:16 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9805555556 | $88.25 |