PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Sardinianshepherd

0xf42f4a4211d058cd109d503cf13f7bcdfc82a6a7

Realised P&L
$81.2k
Volume
$4.09M
Markets traded
1,666
Open portfolio
$13.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,666
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.9000.945$3.8k+$180.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes0.6610.345$2.7k−$2.5k
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5650.705$2.5k+$491.54
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · No0.8400.815$1.6k−$49.97
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes0.2500.370$633.27+$205.39
Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yes0.7240.991$515.90+$138.89
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.7310.879$373.61+$62.96
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat? · Yes0.3500.265$265.00−$85.00
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · No0.2900.285$199.50−$3.50
Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? · No0.8570.995$160.27+$22.19
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat? · Yes0.7670.545$145.06−$59.12
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yes0.8290.992$128.90+$21.10
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat? · Yes0.3700.405$87.10+$7.53
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? · Yes0.1030.032$28.49−$63.25
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No0.7600.852$24.69+$2.65

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 12:48Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?SELL0.992$1.0k
10-31 10:29Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.72$720.00
10-28 19:42Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.97$194.00
10-28 12:42Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.835$83.50
10-28 12:41Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.81$24.30
10-28 12:37Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.966$24.15
10-28 10:50Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.5706015282$35.10
10-28 04:27Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.95$145.11
10-28 04:22Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?SELL0.0506771245$4.49
10-28 04:15Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.9854787133$20.83
10-28 04:13Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 4% and 6% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.73625$23.56
10-28 04:11Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.95$95.00
10-28 04:11Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.9310232558$200.17
10-28 03:34Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.659$3.29
10-28 03:22Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.76$9.12