Sardinianshepherd
0xf42f4a4211d058cd109d503cf13f7bcdfc82a6a7
- Realised P&L
- $81.2k
- Volume
- $4.09M
- Markets traded
- 1,666
- Open portfolio
- $13.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,666
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.6kat 0.890Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$7.7kat 0.901US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.369Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$4.1kat 0.576US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.657Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 12:48 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.0k |
| 10-31 10:29 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $720.00 |
| 10-28 19:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $194.00 |
| 10-28 12:42 | Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.835 | $83.50 |
| 10-28 12:41 | Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $24.30 |
| 10-28 12:37 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.966 | $24.15 |
| 10-28 10:50 | Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.5706015282 | $35.10 |
| 10-28 04:27 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.95 | $145.11 |
| 10-28 04:22 | Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.0506771245 | $4.49 |
| 10-28 04:15 | Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.9854787133 | $20.83 |
| 10-28 04:13 | Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 4% and 6% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.73625 | $23.56 |
| 10-28 04:11 | Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 10-28 04:11 | Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.9310232558 | $200.17 |
| 10-28 03:34 | Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.659 | $3.29 |
| 10-28 03:22 | Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.76 | $9.12 |