yupi44
0xf41c5ec2ce0f233a203b4292e9fe2209ad7bf625
- Realised P&L
- $43.90
- Volume
- $771.31
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $111.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.505 | $83.43 | +$50.42 |
| Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.169 | $28.18 | −$0.17 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.70at 0.879Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$2.79at 0.680Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$2.36at 0.864Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$0.84at 0.630Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?
- +$0.57at 0.650Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-06 10:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? | BUY | 0.3399999816 | $9.63 |
| 01-06 10:33 | Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | SELL | 0.69 | $9.63 |
| 01-01 10:49 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $33.01 |
| 01-01 10:49 | Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999959 | $28.35 |
| 01-01 10:47 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.998 | $64.85 |
| 01-01 10:44 | Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | BUY | 0.6299999907 | $8.80 |
| 12-27 06:21 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.92 | $48.28 |
| 12-27 06:19 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $38.70 |
| 12-27 06:18 | Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | SELL | 0.69 | $9.87 |
| 12-20 17:31 | Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | BUY | 0.6499999895 | $9.30 |
| 12-20 17:27 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.54 | $9.30 |
| 12-13 18:07 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9949999812 | $8.71 |
| 12-13 18:05 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.37 |
| 12-04 08:26 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | BUY | 0.1419999883 | $9.15 |
| 12-04 08:17 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.7099999507 | $12.24 |