0xf40e019c49014769655e937f303203fa4d90ff76
- Realised P&L
- $0.46
- Volume
- $47.9k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $103.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.984 | 0.987 | $83.43 | +$0.21 |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.003 | $20.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.71at 0.006Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.35at 0.993Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11?
- +$0.09at 0.998Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$0.08at 0.998Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11?
- +$0.06at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-24 04:28 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.984 | $83.22 |
| 03-24 04:27 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.007 | $82.60 |
| 02-25 11:53 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $63.26 |
| 02-25 11:52 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.987 | $62.77 |
| 01-14 02:24 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.989 | $106.62 |
| 01-07 06:27 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 5-11? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $14.14 |
| 01-07 06:27 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11? | BUY | 0.997999983 | $40.00 |
| 01-07 06:26 | Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? | BUY | 0.9933008684 | $52.00 |
| 12-08 06:47 | Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999838 | $42.99 |
| 12-08 06:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $63.00 |