orcampaired
0xf404d594cc400f8a7f36b91bc8aa7b266a1d291e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $86.9k
- Markets traded
- 6,769
- Open portfolio
- $18.91
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,769
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.265 | $5.83 | +$0.99 |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.945 | $4.72 | +$0.53 |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.945 | $4.72 | +$0.68 |
| Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.125 | $3.63 | −$1.30 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.36 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.32 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$187.92at 0.190Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
- +$26.63at 0.608Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
- +$23.44at 0.530Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
- +$21.15at 0.722Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
- +$17.57at 0.599Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 19:34 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.67 | $5.36 |
| 10-01 14:37 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.84 |
| 10-01 02:29 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $3.05 |
| 09-29 22:03 | Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-29 18:37 | Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 09-28 15:56 | Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-28 02:45 | Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $5.00 |
| 09-28 02:45 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3058764182 | $5.00 |
| 09-28 00:56 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.7099999702 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 21:57 | Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY | 0.035 | $1.23 |
| 07-07 21:56 | Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.19 | $35.59 |
| 06-17 12:13 | Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? | SELL | 0.33 | $0.66 |
| 06-17 06:34 | Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 06-17 06:33 | Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.82 |
| 06-17 00:23 | Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.20 |