connie95
0xf3c6a1df0f616573ba388a527362e85ad16dc711
- Realised P&L
- $164.68
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $29.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 26? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.982 | $29.04 | +$5.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$146.23at 0.350Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$97.25at 0.357Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?
- +$26.13at 0.760Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?
- +$8.88at 0.810Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
- +$7.67at 0.610Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 20:30 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? | BUY | 0.8199999989 | $29.88 |
| 01-31 13:32 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9830898805 | $48.50 |
| 01-30 15:46 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9952499066 | $89.88 |
| 01-30 15:02 | Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $45.26 |
| 01-30 13:06 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $101.23 |
| 12-30 11:36 | Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.43 |
| 12-30 09:01 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.21 |
| 12-30 00:01 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9899999664 | $19.17 |
| 12-29 22:04 | Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.87 |
| 10-30 20:04 | Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.23 |
| 10-30 18:54 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | BUY | 0.9989999533 | $19.09 |
| 10-30 17:38 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.01 |
| 09-29 10:09 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.987 | $15.87 |
| 09-29 09:25 | Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in September? | BUY | 0.9979999981 | $16.46 |
| 09-29 04:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | BUY | 0.998999955 | $19.12 |