0xf3b073a6f13ca6fd435fe0a4976428a615169ee6
0xf3b073a6f13ca6fd435fe0a4976428a615169ee6
- Realised P&L
- $-31.30
- Volume
- $8.8k
- Markets traded
- 128
- Open portfolio
- $13.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded128
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.907 | 0.968 | $4.26 | +$0.26 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.954 | $3.21 | +$0.21 |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? · No | 0.905 | 0.982 | $2.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Abby McKibben win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.360 | $1.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.670 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.044 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.86at 0.834Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5
- +$1.57at 0.883Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5
- +$1.17at 0.630Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?
- +$1.16at 0.720BC Dubai vs. Panathinaikos
- +$0.78at 0.550Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 05:13 | Will Abby McKibben win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 02:10 | Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.86 |
| 09-01 23:59 | Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 23:43 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.11 |
| 09-01 22:42 | Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 22:18 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 06:59 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 06:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.70 |
| 07-01 07:13 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:13 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 15:30 | Trump on $250 bill this year? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.89 |
| 06-02 13:25 | Trump on $250 bill this year? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 12:12 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.931 | $1.01 |
| 06-01 07:47 | Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 05-22 19:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.00 |